The leaders of Russia, India and China were seen together at BRICS 2024 summit held in St. Petersburg. Pictures of Russian, Indian, and Chinese leaders are shared to represent the group’s strength. Indeed, the BRICS has emerged as one of the most important forums in recent years with the shift of global power from west to east.
At the core of BRICS is the presence of the Russia-India-China (RIC) group, representing the fastest emerging economies and military superpowers. Hypothetical pictures are drawn to show the possibilities of RIC and the strength it can acquire in global affairs.
In the political map of the world, RIC is an imaginary column or axis that divides the world map into two halves. In geopolitical language, it has the potential to shape the new international order. But beyond the imagination, many realities question the success of such a bloc in today’s geopolitics.
Russia, India, China and Primakov’s Triangle
In 1998, Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov proposed RIC to counter Western dominance. While the Chinese economy was among the world’s best-performing economies of that time, the Russian economy collapsed amid export contraction and a falling Rubble. The Indian economy was yet to taste the fruits of reforms initiated in 1990.
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Primakov’s proposed triangle eventually found some acceptance with the beginning of informal meetings of RIC foreign ministers in 2002. The first summit of RIC leaders was held in 2006 on the sidelines of the G8 summit in St. Petersburg, Russia. The RIC leaders have so far met thrice, the most recent summit was on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Japan.
The BRICS 2024 summit and recent indications of rapprochement in India-China relations have again sparked speculation about realising the opportunities RIC brings to the table.
The RIC axis has many possibilities from the Russian point of view. Given the influence India and China enjoy, RIC could prove a strong non-west and at times, an anti-west platform to withstand the Western forces in both economic and strategic spheres.
RIC has also come as an invisible hand that warded off the Western sanctions against Russia in the wake of its war in Ukraine. India and China became the two largest importers of Russian oil which helped Russia salvage its economy while continuing its war expanses. More importantly, Russia could never be isolated on global platforms despite the efforts of the entire West. This was just a mere display of how important RIC is to Russia.
The Geographical extent of RIC spreads to some of the most crucial hotspots. RIC has the ability to influence the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) with India being prominent in the region, the Arctic where the Russians are exploring oil, gas, minerals and navigation pathways and the crucial South China Sea where China dominates.
Russia also keeps RIC at the heart of its vision for Eurasia. With India becoming part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), its integration into Eurasia became more visible and prominent.
In the geopolitical gameplay between Russia and the USA, RIC could be Russia’s formidable response and a counterweight against the US-EU alliance.
India, China Equation
Looking from a Russian scope, RIC brings many possibilities. But is it equally beneficial for the other two countries — India and China? More importantly, the question arises, can India and China align themselves for a common objective on a platform like RIC?
The RIC requires equal participation of Russia, India and China with each sharing the common objectives of security, economics and geopolitics. While Russia-India and Russia-China relations have been steady and strong, the uncertainty over India-China relations prevents the Axis from making any major commitment.
The first major roadblock in RIC is the unresolved border dispute between India and China and the underlying mistrust between the two countries.
While the border dispute has been there, the 2020 Galwan conflict was the major turning point which eroded the trust developed between the two countries from the Wuhan spirit and Chennai connect. A peaceful resolution of a complex border dispute that looks tedious task to accomplish now would only be the beginning of cooperation in strategic areas.
The present geopolitical conditions indicate China and India may not have a great interest in giving the highest level of primacy to RIC. As both countries look to advance their interests in the West and South, they compete more than cooperate.
The India-China conflict takes the shape of geopolitical competition outside border disputes. China keeps India under check by negating its neighborhood-first policy through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and various other initiatives in South Asia.
The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) which India sees as its major sphere of influence is now one of the geopolitical hotspots. Chinese presence in IOR has increased rapidly in recent years with its increasing influence in countries like Sri Lanka, Maldives, Madagascar and others. These countries are considered part of either India’s neighbourhood or extended neighbourhood.
India also enjoys a unique position in global affairs due to its west-east balance and the non-aligned nature of foreign policy. It enjoys strategic relations with both the USA and Russia at the same time. It is part of both Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and SCO groupings. India’s presence in various groups and commitment to multilateralism means it will not commit an anti-west or anti-east stand. So, as long as the India-China rivalry exists and India does not abandon its non-aligned stance, the RIC grouping remains a fancy idea. India-China rivalry is inevitable and non-aligned foreign policy is a time-tested policy, both look indispensable.
